Author Topic: Our first Global Warming thing  (Read 11896 times)

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Brugdor

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Our first Global Warming thing
« on: August 10, 2007, 04:55:56 PM »
http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=8383

Blogger Finds Y2K Bug in NASA Climate Data
Michael Asher (Blog) - August 9, 2007 11:49 AM

An example of the Y2K discontinuity in action  (Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)
Years of bad data corrected; 1998 no longer the warmest year on record

My earlier column this week detailed the work of a volunteer team to assess problems with US temperature data used for climate modeling. One of these people is Steve McIntyre, who operates the site climateaudit.org. While inspecting historical temperature graphs, he noticed a strange discontinuity, or "jump" in many locations, all occurring around the time of January, 2000.

These graphs were created by NASA's Reto Ruedy and James Hansen (who shot to fame when he accused the administration of trying to censor his views on climate change). Hansen refused to provide McKintyre with the algorithm used to generate graph data, so McKintyre reverse-engineered it. The result appeared to be a Y2K bug in the handling of the raw data.

McKintyre notified the pair of the bug; Ruedy replied and acknowledged the problem as an "oversight" that would be fixed in the next data refresh.

NASA has now silently released corrected figures, and the changes are truly astounding. The warmest year on record is now 1934. 1998 (long trumpeted by the media as record-breaking) moves to second place.  1921 takes third. In fact, 5 of the 10 warmest years on record now all occur before World War II.  Anthony Watts has put the new data in chart form, along with a more detailed summary of the events.

The effect of the correction on global temperatures is minor (some 1-2% less warming than originally thought), but the effect on the US global warming propaganda machine could be huge.

Then again-- maybe not. I strongly suspect this story will receive little to no attention from the mainstream media.



Corrected NASA data is here

Oops!   ::)
"When planning a new picture we don't think of grown ups and we don't think of children but just of that fine, clean, unspoiled spot down deep in every one of us that maybe the world has made us forget and that maybe our pictures can help recall." - Walt Disney

BlueCross

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Re: Our first Global Warming thing
« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2007, 05:43:56 PM »
From the same site (the NASA site, not the blog):

"for the record, I'm not some kind of psychotic provincialist." - Than (ed: Cit. required)
"I lost my game of NT: Garry's fault. Global warming: Garry's fault. End-of-the-Universe: Garry's fault. See it always fits. Anyway, what is Garry up to? No good I bet." - Laszlo
"As for your French, it's probably better than the average English-speaking Frenchman's Finnish! (Or something.)" - wa
"I'm back at Thunderfalls now and every minute thinking of poking a bandit in the eye with a fishhook." - Preyveil
"and yet still nothing has made it to BC's signature!"-KMD

Solwyn

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Re: Our first Global Warming thing
« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2007, 05:58:02 PM »
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
"Honor is the combination of idealism and the practical application of
it without regard for its personal cost to you."

Brugdor

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Re: Our first Global Warming thing
« Reply #3 on: August 10, 2007, 07:38:41 PM »
From the same site (the NASA site, not the blog):



What am I missing? All I see is a little icon.
"When planning a new picture we don't think of grown ups and we don't think of children but just of that fine, clean, unspoiled spot down deep in every one of us that maybe the world has made us forget and that maybe our pictures can help recall." - Walt Disney

BlueCross

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Re: Our first Global Warming thing
« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2007, 08:13:42 PM »
Yer browser be da pits den!
"for the record, I'm not some kind of psychotic provincialist." - Than (ed: Cit. required)
"I lost my game of NT: Garry's fault. Global warming: Garry's fault. End-of-the-Universe: Garry's fault. See it always fits. Anyway, what is Garry up to? No good I bet." - Laszlo
"As for your French, it's probably better than the average English-speaking Frenchman's Finnish! (Or something.)" - wa
"I'm back at Thunderfalls now and every minute thinking of poking a bandit in the eye with a fishhook." - Preyveil
"and yet still nothing has made it to BC's signature!"-KMD

BlueCross

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Re: Our first Global Warming thing
« Reply #5 on: August 10, 2007, 08:24:48 PM »
Some more info relating to the original blog/post:

Data posted refers to chart on http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ 'Annual Mean Temperature Change in the United States'

so it actually points to 1934 as the year with the biggest 'change', not the highest temperature.

It also refers only to the US, not to the entire world.


And the author is correct.  It will probably receive little or no attention from the mainstream media because THE FUCKUP WHO WROTE THE BLOG HAS NO CLUE AT HOW TO INTERPRET DATA AND IS A FUCKING WHOREMONGER ATTENTION GETTING SHITHEAD WITH THE IQ OF A FENCEPOST!

And yes, as a matter of fact, I do feel better.
"for the record, I'm not some kind of psychotic provincialist." - Than (ed: Cit. required)
"I lost my game of NT: Garry's fault. Global warming: Garry's fault. End-of-the-Universe: Garry's fault. See it always fits. Anyway, what is Garry up to? No good I bet." - Laszlo
"As for your French, it's probably better than the average English-speaking Frenchman's Finnish! (Or something.)" - wa
"I'm back at Thunderfalls now and every minute thinking of poking a bandit in the eye with a fishhook." - Preyveil
"and yet still nothing has made it to BC's signature!"-KMD

Solwyn

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Re: Our first Global Warming thing
« Reply #6 on: August 10, 2007, 08:32:55 PM »
haha. Well, it's interesting stuff nonetheless.

I still believe that we have a climate change. I don't believe it's the sole fault of a few American companies. But I'm all for making the world a better place without the need for a global warming boogeyman looming on the horizon with his hammer and scythe, laughing maniacally like some terrible mixed metaphor.
"Honor is the combination of idealism and the practical application of
it without regard for its personal cost to you."

BlueCross

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Re: Our first Global Warming thing
« Reply #7 on: August 10, 2007, 08:47:50 PM »
Doesn't really matter if it is cataclysmic or the slow death of a thousand needles...

"This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper."


or even this...

"Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I've tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice. "
"for the record, I'm not some kind of psychotic provincialist." - Than (ed: Cit. required)
"I lost my game of NT: Garry's fault. Global warming: Garry's fault. End-of-the-Universe: Garry's fault. See it always fits. Anyway, what is Garry up to? No good I bet." - Laszlo
"As for your French, it's probably better than the average English-speaking Frenchman's Finnish! (Or something.)" - wa
"I'm back at Thunderfalls now and every minute thinking of poking a bandit in the eye with a fishhook." - Preyveil
"and yet still nothing has made it to BC's signature!"-KMD

Brugdor

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Re: Our first Global Warming thing
« Reply #8 on: August 10, 2007, 08:48:25 PM »
Some more info relating to the original blog/post:

Data posted refers to chart on http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ 'Annual Mean Temperature Change in the United States'

so it actually points to 1934 as the year with the biggest 'change', not the highest temperature.

It also refers only to the US, not to the entire world.


Umm...I'm going on very little sleep here so if I'm wrong I'm wrong but the mean is the exact middle of the two extremes, correct? So when looking at the lowest and highest temps in the US, this graph shows that 1934 was the highest of all years compared to the mean which means it would be the warmest year. To put it another way, the biggest change upward from the mean would be the warmest temp.

Also the "it's only the US" argument would fly if the GW folks didn't constantly use US-only temps to try and justify their data.
"When planning a new picture we don't think of grown ups and we don't think of children but just of that fine, clean, unspoiled spot down deep in every one of us that maybe the world has made us forget and that maybe our pictures can help recall." - Walt Disney

Brugdor

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Re: Our first Global Warming thing
« Reply #9 on: August 10, 2007, 08:51:46 PM »
Yer browser be da pits den!

It would help to know what you posted so I could see what I might need to change in Firefox. Was it a pic or what?
"When planning a new picture we don't think of grown ups and we don't think of children but just of that fine, clean, unspoiled spot down deep in every one of us that maybe the world has made us forget and that maybe our pictures can help recall." - Walt Disney

Doombot

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Re: Our first Global Warming thing
« Reply #10 on: August 10, 2007, 09:11:00 PM »
Data posted refers to chart on http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ 'Annual Mean Temperature Change in the United States'

Bluecross confuses me. I just see a Cross.

Bluecross is crazy.
Will I get Night Owl points for quitting but not as much for getting fired?
Will I still be a member of the Owl's Pals? I'd hate to turn in my card. It's got a real owl feather under the lamination and everything.


Night Owl: Oh, indeed. I quit many a job ...better than being fired. You can keep your card... in fact, you get double points for quitting!


BlueCross

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Re: Our first Global Warming thing
« Reply #11 on: August 10, 2007, 10:54:38 PM »
To put it another way, the biggest change upward from the mean would be the warmest temp.

Um... no.



Also the "it's only the US" argument would fly if the GW folks didn't constantly use US-only temps to try and justify their data.

If you say "warmest year in the world" and point to data that points only to the US, then you are stupid (the blogger, not you).
"for the record, I'm not some kind of psychotic provincialist." - Than (ed: Cit. required)
"I lost my game of NT: Garry's fault. Global warming: Garry's fault. End-of-the-Universe: Garry's fault. See it always fits. Anyway, what is Garry up to? No good I bet." - Laszlo
"As for your French, it's probably better than the average English-speaking Frenchman's Finnish! (Or something.)" - wa
"I'm back at Thunderfalls now and every minute thinking of poking a bandit in the eye with a fishhook." - Preyveil
"and yet still nothing has made it to BC's signature!"-KMD

Brugdor

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Re: Our first Global Warming thing
« Reply #12 on: August 10, 2007, 11:20:47 PM »
Um... no.

Explain.



Quote
If you say "warmest year in the world" and point to data that points only to the US, then you are stupid (the blogger, not you).


But my point was that this has been done repeatedly by the GW people using this particular (though uncorrected) study.
"When planning a new picture we don't think of grown ups and we don't think of children but just of that fine, clean, unspoiled spot down deep in every one of us that maybe the world has made us forget and that maybe our pictures can help recall." - Walt Disney

BlueCross

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Re: Our first Global Warming thing
« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2007, 11:28:46 PM »
And my point was that the blogger took data, twisted it to fit his view of the world, and was basically clueless (or dishonest).

I kinda like sticking to the point.
"for the record, I'm not some kind of psychotic provincialist." - Than (ed: Cit. required)
"I lost my game of NT: Garry's fault. Global warming: Garry's fault. End-of-the-Universe: Garry's fault. See it always fits. Anyway, what is Garry up to? No good I bet." - Laszlo
"As for your French, it's probably better than the average English-speaking Frenchman's Finnish! (Or something.)" - wa
"I'm back at Thunderfalls now and every minute thinking of poking a bandit in the eye with a fishhook." - Preyveil
"and yet still nothing has made it to BC's signature!"-KMD

Brugdor

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Re: Our first Global Warming thing
« Reply #14 on: August 10, 2007, 11:40:18 PM »
And my point was that the blogger took data, twisted it to fit his view of the world, and was basically clueless (or dishonest).

I kinda like sticking to the point.

And yet you won't explain why the the year with the largest variant from the mean isn't the warmest year.

I mean seriously, am I just too tired to see something really obvious here? It's entirely possible. If I'm missing something explain what it is.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2007, 11:47:56 PM by Brugdor »
"When planning a new picture we don't think of grown ups and we don't think of children but just of that fine, clean, unspoiled spot down deep in every one of us that maybe the world has made us forget and that maybe our pictures can help recall." - Walt Disney